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Cruising in chaos

Though many innovators claim to embrace risk, in practice, the vast majority treat it as a toxic spill, trying to avoid it. This series of articles explores the hidden forces of innovation: chaos, risk, and uncertainty, and how to leverage, not mitigate, them.

Chaos (χάος, kháos) refers to the division of reality outside of the ordered cosmos. It refers to a state, place, or time beyond the known, familiar, and reliable world, often said to be inhabited by strange, ominous, or demonic beings.

Part 1

The Cynefin Framework

Understanding when you enter the chaos zone

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Part 2

Shifting to Specific Mental Models

Key differences between innovation in linear and non-linear times

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Part 3

Reality Check: Are You in the Chaos Zone?

Diagnosing whether your market is truly chaotic

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Part 4

The Logic of Becoming the Casino

How to shift odds in your favor when outcomes are unpredictable

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Part 5

Pierre Wack's Scenario Planning

Investigating Shell's pioneering work on navigating uncertainty

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Part 6

The Second Entrant Advantage

In chaotic markets, first movers are always disadvantaged.

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Why Classic Frameworks Fail

Core competence, portfolio splits, and disruption theory don't survive contact with chaos

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The Safest Move Is More Risk

Why avoiding risk is the most dangerous posture in a disrupting market

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Portfolio Strategy Isn't Spray and Pray

The real math behind why quantity beats picking winners

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Industry

Corporate innovation that thrives in chaotic markets.

  • Can’t innovate? Think again
  • Anduril’s defense disruption
  • Building a real portfolio
  • Becoming the casino
  • Tools for chaotic times
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Startups

How new entrants transform deeptech into scalable market offers.

  • Run a startup, quick and dirty
  • Eight reliable pitch strategies
  • Three levels of prototyping
  • Nobody wants your product
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Frameworks

Sharp, actionable strategic tools for innovators in 2026.

  • The 5 perimeters of AI
  • Innovation framework
  • Culture framework
  • Digital stacks
  • Big tech framework
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The agency

European innovation strategy consulting by Philippe Méda for market leaders, from deep-tech to industrial sectors.

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