Cruising in chaos
Though many innovators claim to embrace risk, in practice, the vast majority treat it as a toxic spill, trying to avoid it. This series of articles explores the hidden forces of innovation: chaos, risk, and uncertainty, and how to leverage, not mitigate, them.
Chaos (χάος, kháos) refers to the division of reality outside of the ordered cosmos. It refers to a state, place, or time beyond the known, familiar, and reliable world, often said to be inhabited by strange, ominous, or demonic beings.
The Cynefin Framework
Understanding when you enter the chaos zone
↗Shifting to Specific Mental Models
Key differences between innovation in linear and non-linear times
↗Reality Check: Are You in the Chaos Zone?
Diagnosing whether your market is truly chaotic
↗The Logic of Becoming the Casino
How to shift odds in your favor when outcomes are unpredictable
↗Pierre Wack's Scenario Planning
Investigating Shell's pioneering work on navigating uncertainty
↗The Second Entrant Advantage
In chaotic markets, first movers are always disadvantaged.
↗Why Classic Frameworks Fail
Core competence, portfolio splits, and disruption theory don't survive contact with chaos
↗The Safest Move Is More Risk
Why avoiding risk is the most dangerous posture in a disrupting market
↗Portfolio Strategy Isn't Spray and Pray
The real math behind why quantity beats picking winners
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