Is AI destroying tech jobs? Not really.
Today, you will hear about Block and how its CEO (Jack Dorsey) fired 4,000 of its 10,000 employees overnight because of "AI". Cue in dramatic comments about the end of work, white-collar workers disappearing, and a global "jobocalypse".
Annie Palmer
Sure.
When you read these articles, though, maybe remember this: a large share of the current layoff wave is concentrated in the US tech scene.
During the pandemic, when everything went remote overnight, tech usage exploded: work, shopping, groceries, entertainment, education, all went through a screen one way or another. Tech companies saw their numbers go vertical and, fearing they would miss out on qualified employees, began recruiting as much as possible.
Meta, for instance, nearly doubled its headcount between March 2020 and September 2022, from 48,000 to over 80,000 employees. By November 2022, it was cutting 11,000 of them. Not really a strategic pivot, but rather an urgently needed correction as the pandemic didn't rewire human behavior forever. As soon as people could go back to stores, restaurants, concerts, and offices, they did. Just check how hybrid work alone has significantly declined in your company and among your customers and suppliers.
This was also powered by a powerful force: the big ZIRP.
Near-zero interest rates (ZIRP) made capital cheap, and growth-at-all-costs was a rational move when money was free. Hiring was a cheap investment in the US context, where firing is quite a streamlined and cheap process, too.
Block and others are in the same boat now. Pinning this pandemic-era hiring binge on AI as (mostly) an efficient scapegoat.
That being said, I won't argue about the potential impact of AI on tech jobs. But, as currently discussed with a few executive committees in top EU industries, we can read prospective fiction for as long as we want; no one knows much yet, and there is certainly no clear sign of what AI will destroy and reconfigure.
A lot of noise, not much of a signal.
An interesting signal, though? Apple. During the COVID period, they kept their cool, the only big tech company keeping its headcount growth steady, and as such, they're not overcorrecting, firing staff right and left.
The real urgency?
Keeping your cool.
Some extra data points:
- Alphabet went from 98,771 employees in 2019 to 190,234 in 2022- a 93% increase in 3 years. Bullfincher
- Meta's 2022 workforce hit 86,482, nearly double its 2019 level, then collapsed 22% to 67,317 in 2023. SQ Magazine
- Apple, by contrast, increased headcount by only 20% over the same period- and avoided mass layoffs entirely. TurnKey
- Tech layoffs were up 649% in 2022 vs. the prior year, versus just a 13% uptick in job cuts across the broader economy. CNN
- From 2023 to 2025, the Bay Area alone lost 137,200 tech jobs. Companies had "built new organizations and divisions for demand curves that didn't pan out." The Mercury News
