Et une bonne année?

Et une bonne année?
Photo by Kelly Sikkema / Unsplash

When discussing the tools of value creation and positioning for innovative ventures, I often explain that in Europe, France is one of the most risk-averse national cultures worldwide, just slightly more optimistic than Japan.

For reference, Hofstede's Uncertainty Avoidance Index (UAI) gives the top countries risk-averse (very high 'UAI') the following:

  1. Greece (100)
  2. Portugal (99)
  3. Guatemala (98)
  4. Uruguay (95)
  5. Russia (95)
  6. Japan (92)
  7. France (86)
  8. Spain (86)
  9. Belgium (94)
  10. Italy (75)

For full context, the ones with less dread regarding uncertainty are:

  1. Singapore (8)
  2. Jamaica (13)
  3. Denmark (23)
  4. Sweden (29)
  5. Hong Kong (29)
  6. United Kingdom (35)
  7. India (40)
  8. Philippines (44)
  9. United States (46)
  10. China (40)

I will let you decide what you want to do with the information that Jamaica and Denmark are remarkably alike in this cultural dimension. : ) More seriously, I will also point out that Hofstede's work is about gross averages, and we could discuss ad nauseam how much China is now a much more diverse cultural landscape, depending on where you live, what your social status is, and your age.

Back to France, this latest IPSOS survey confirms our heavy cultural bias regarding our collective distrust of the future:

You can also see that the post-Brexit UK has dropped to the bottom of the ranking as the population seems to have become much more risk-averse regarding its future...

Technically, if you're in the business of innovation it means that France can only be one of two things: the best or the worst market for launching an innovation. Indeed, if you're pretty sure your innovation is solid, validating in France can be extremely powerful: "If it works there, it will work everywhere else." But mainly, I advise industries never to launch anything in France until they've secured their innovation in the rest of the market.

In my experience, one of the rare effective scenarios for launching an innovation in France first would be if you're bringing an FDA-approved medical device to Europe, you have tons of money, and you're 100% positive about your value. In that case, launching in France will give you a pathway to debug most of the issues you'd face everywhere in Europe. It's going to be costly and painful, but you'll know what and how to fine-tune your launch on the old continent. If you don't have much time and money, just go to Germany.

Enjoy the beginning of the year, and for my French friends, customers, and relatives, please remember that we tend to see a glass half-full as totally empty very soon. 😌

(As a side note, I'd be quite interested in seeing a study on startup failure rates by country linked to this market bias.)